Apple’s iPhone has regained the smartphone sales crown

Even as it prepares to further diversify its iPhone range, Apple is about to regain the smartphone crown from Samsung, according to analysts from Counterpoint. “Apple is set to dethrone Samsung in shipments for the first time in 14 years and will maintain the top spot through 2029,” Counterpoint said, noting that global smartphone sales are expected to increase 3.3% this year, mainly driven by strong performances from Apple. iPhone shipments should be up 10% year-on-year, they also said, for a global share of 19.4% in 2025. 

There’s something a little poetic about this, as the leadership position is one Apple slowly lost after the introduction of the iPhone 4S, which appeared just nine days after the death of Steve Jobs. (This led to some calling that iPhone the iPhone S, “for Steve.”) He’d probably be happy iPhone has now regained leadership against a platform he once complained was “stolen.”  

The analysts also shared several reflections valuable to any Apple or industry watcher. 

How did we get here?

In part, Apple’s ascendance owes a little of its existence to the Covid crisis, during which millions of people acquired new iPhones. Senior Analyst Yang Wang said, “Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point. Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase.”

Second-hand – the gateway to iPhone

Apple also benefit from the second-user market. iPhones tend to remain usable for much longer than competing devices, they sell well as used devices, retain their value longer, and tend to be more resilient. This is evident at the street level, where it was recently reported that some London criminals refuse to steal anything other than an iPhone; they get more cash for them.

This popularity unleashes a golden halo for Apple as it means that once someone has used a second-hand iPhone for a while they are far more likely to upgrade to a new one when given the chance. 

That’s what’s happening this time, according to the analysis, which claims 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025. “These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years. These factors will form a sizable demand base, which is expected to sustain iPhone shipment growth over the coming quarters,” Counterpoint said.

The tariff factor

The analysts also shared interesting reflections on the impact of US tariffs on the industry. While it is inarguable that these were announced in a blaze of guts and glory, the true impact once negotiations took place seemed more limited. 

All the same, the impact of those tariffs and subsequent US/China truce benefitted Apple, while also spurring acceleration in the evolution of a more diversified supply chain — lending impetus to its work to penetrate new markets. The success of the latter is particularly visible in India, where sales are rising rapidly, even as the number of iPhones made there increases. 

As above, so below

What’s changing are component prices. Growth in smartphone sales generally alongside competition from rapidly emerging new industry sectors such as artificial intelligence means component costs are climbing. To some extent, Apple and Samsung are protected against the impact of those increases as they can lock in prices in the long term. Smaller vendors, principally in the Android space, lack that flexibility, meaning they are left to compete for shrinking margins in a market defined by prices set by Apple and Samsung. 

Those makers are about to face even more pressure, Counterpoint said, as Apple extends the breadth of the iPhone lineup. 

“By expanding its lineup across multiple price tiers, including the growing “e” series, and potential adjustments to the Pro and Base launch cycles, Apple is strategically positioning itself to capture rising demand from aspirational consumers, particularly in emerging markets, and to strengthen its presence in the lower premium segment, which is projected to grow faster than the overall market.”

That’s important, as it means smaller smartphone vendors will be pressured on manufacturing costs from below, even as they are forced to compete more fiercely for sales at the more lucrative parts of the mid-range market, with Apple and Samsung now fighting in those corners, too.

The secret weapon

Finally, the popularity of iOS remains an Apple trump cards, putting even more wind beneath its iPhone-selling wings. “Given an increasing preference for the iOS ecosystem, compatibility between devices and a substantial number of older models within Apple’s installed base due for renewal, Apple will retain the lead over other smartphone OEMs through the end of the decade,” the analysts said.

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