Apple’s folding iPhone has already launched – in your head

You can’t have missed all the recent leaks. What used to be occasional glimpses into Apple’s future plans, followed by scripted public events, has now become a cadence of leaks followed by announcements.

Apple can’t seem to make a single move without it being telegraphed in advance to its users, usually from the same sources. We get treated to spookily accurate predictions about the big announcements, such as new iPhones. But now we also get a heads up for the smaller stuff, like the recently introduced Apple Upgrade scheme. It makes for interesting reading for the world’s most committed Apple watchers, that interest translates into waves of headlines, which is why Apple now effectively holds endless iPhone announcements each year.

Using the upcoming folding iPhone as an illustration, it works like this:

The seven waves of Apple product launches

• First, we get an outsider rumor that Apple is about to introduce a new device, in this case a folding iPhone.
• Later, we might get more speculation, usually along the lines that the still unannounced device has been “delayed” for some reason.
• A third series of rumors drip feed additional details about the upcoming new device. (There could be multiple waves of these.)
• At some point, Apple will announce the event rumormongers has been predicting for months, spawning yet more reporting, speculation, and analysis.
• Once the news is officially announced, it has already been reported, discussed, reported again, analysed, refuted, and even denied multiple times. 
• Of course, the announcement also gets reported.
• Then, the narrative turns to one of surprise/disappointment/analysis as the real-world product is compared to months of eerily accurate speculation and rumor.
• Reality sets in as the early reviews arrive, typically first in the US. 
• Millions rush to buy the new product, by which time many feel like they have nursed its birth for months.
• Then the post-purchase help, advice, and follow-up reports begin.

But the magic is all in the stage setting during the earlier series of reports.

The arithmetic of anticipation

That means for every key Apple launch, we now experience at least seven waves of announcements for each product each year. Apple now holds two key calendar iPhone announcements annually, which makes for at least 14 waves of news — supplemented by additional speculation about individual models.

These multiple waves quickly add up, creating a tsunami of reporting that cannot help but establish Apple’s new product release in the public eye. How many people — and not just iPhone users — already know to expect a folding iPhone soon? How many also know demand for that device will exceed supply? Heck, we even know it will cost $2,000!

Manufactured consent 

This degree of public consciousness doesn’t happen by accident. It is created one wave at a time. It really doesn’t matter whether the speculation and rumors are generated by Apple itself or by merit of industrious digging on the part of well-connected reporters. It doesn’t matter because the results are the same. 

The rapid pace and multiple waves of leaks create a steady momentum to support any expected product release. This momentum works to Apple’s benefit, even when a leak is negative; the speculation allows for public debate before the bad news unfolds, giving Apple’s public time to digest the information. In this way, every news leak, every rumor, every bit of speculation does its part to support Apple’s incredible marketing machine. 

Momentum doesn’t care whether rumor makes the grade

Are we being cynical about this? Has the brazen nature of the approach turned people off from listening to news and speculation about the company? 

I don’t think so. Perhaps because, as the “father of public relations”, Edward Bernays said in his seminal book, “Propaganda”: “No matter how sophisticated, how cynical the public may become about publicity methods, it must respond to the basic appeals, because it will always need food, crave amusement, long for beauty, respond to leadership. If the public becomes more intelligent in its commercial demands, commercial firms will meet the new standards. If it becomes weary of the old methods used to persuade it to accept a given idea or commodity, its leaders will present their appeals more intelligently. Propaganda will never die out.”

Up next

We’re all expecting Apple to introduce new iPhones on Sept. 9. These will include the first ever folding iPhone, which will be available initially in the US only, and will deliver a high-end premium experience, though there may be some reservations around the camera. We’re also expecting a $100 price bump on other iPhones — but by the time the price increase is announced, we will already have come to terms with it. 

What’s coming next in the iPhone hype-cycle? Well, that will be news of the 20th anniversary glass iPhone, which is already up to wave three in the reporting cycle. Interested in following Apple’s news machinery? Sign up to my daily newsletter.

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